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Stock market today: Stocks go nowhere as Wall Street waits for inflation print

Karen Friar y Ines Ferré
Actualización:

US stocks ended Monday's session little changed as investors kicked off a big week that will see a fresh inflation data test for rate-cut views and the start of first quarter earnings season.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), the S&P 500 (^GSPC), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) all closed near the flatline.

A strong jobs report helped lift stocks on Friday but couldn't fend off weekly losses as doubts about the Federal Reserve's resolve for interest rate cuts preyed on minds.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury (^TNX) stood at 4.42% following a bond sell-off last week. While the benchmark has pared gains, it is still within reach of the key 4.5% level seen by some as a potential tipping point for a run-up toward last year's highs.

Other concerns added to the unsettled mood: divided views on policy from Fed speakers, growing noise around the coming US presidential election, and a spike in oil prices from escalating Middle East tensions that could fan inflation pressures.

All that is sharpening focus on the release of the Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, a key input in the Fed's decision making and a clue to continuing resilience in the US economy. Investors will watch for signs that inflation returned to its downward trend in March after signs of stickiness in readings earlier this year.

At the same time, the market is bracing for the new earnings season, with Delta Air Lines (DAL) setting the stage on Wednesday for big banks' results on Friday. Broadly, Wall Street expects the first quarter to set the tone for a robust year of earnings growth among S&P 500 companies, hopes boosted by the blowout March labor figures.

Against that backdrop, gold rose above $2,350 an ounce to touch a fresh record. Meanwhile, oil reached for recent multi-month highs as the market assessed easing tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude futures (BZ=F) settled at $90.48 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures (CL=F) closed the session at $86.43.

HA FINALIZADO LA COBERTURA EN DIRECTO15 actualizaciones
  • Ines Ferré

    Stocks close little changed as investors await inflation data, earnings later this week

    US stocks closed Monday's session little changed, kicking off a week that will see fresh inflation data and the start of a new earnings season.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), the S&P 500 (^GSPC), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) closed near the flatline.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury (^TNX) stood at 4.42% following a bond sell-off last week. While the benchmark has pared gains, it is still within reach of the key 4.5% level seen by some as a potential tipping point for a run-up toward last year's highs.

    Tesla (TSLA) stock jumped 5% after CEO Elon Musk announceed that the EV giant will debut its long-awaited robotaxi on Aug. 8.

    Meanwhile bitcoin (BTC-USD) gained roughly 3% over the past 24 hours to trade back above $71,500 per token.

  • Ines Ferré

    Tesla stock pops 5% as Wall Street weighs in on EV gaint's Robotaxi plans

    Tesla (TSLA) stock jumped as much as 5% on Monday as investors bought into CEO Elon Musk’s latest proclamation that Tesla would debut its long-awaited robotaxi on Aug. 8.

    Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports:

    Musk’s announcement of Tesla’s Robotaxi after the bell on Friday followed a Reuters report that Tesla had canceled plans to build a long-awaited sub-$30,000 EV, which some have called the Model 2.

    Despite Monday’s pop in shares, Wall Street analysts are mixed on the announcement.

    Read more here.

  • Josh Schafer

    Wall Street just gave its highest S&P 500 forecast yet

    The high-water mark for stock projections in 2024 has once again moved up.

    In a new note to clients on Monday, Wells Fargo head of equity strategy Christopher Harvey boosted his year-end target for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) to 5,535 from 4,625. This marks the highest call for the S&P 500 by year-end among strategists tracked by Yahoo Finance and reflects about 6% upside from where the benchmark average opened on Monday.

    Harvey believes the current market moment has investors looking past the possibility that stock valuations have risen too high amid the market rally, providing further room for stocks to move higher.

    "The bull market, AI's secular growth story, and index concentration have shifted investors' attention away from traditional relative valuation measures and toward longer-term growth and discounting metrics," Harvey wrote. "Investors' valuation thresholds have decreased and time horizons have appeared to have increased since 2023 as a result of this secular optimism."

    Harvey is the latest in a string of strategists boosting their projections for the S&P 500 this year as they aim to keep pace with a hot start for stocks in 2024. He noted that US economic growth has come in better than expected since his team published its 2024 outlook in November, a positive sign for corporate growth.

    Read more here.

  • Josh Schafer

    The S&P 500's largest stocks are expected to drive the bulk of earnings growth in Q1

    The stock market rally's broadening likely won't be on full display during first quarter earnings reports.

    As we noted yesterday, strategists believe the year will eventually end with the rest of the S&P 500 companies' earnings growth catching up to Big Tech. But in the near term, consensus still sees earnings beats from the index's largest companies leading the major average to a third straight quarter of year-over-year earnings growth.

    Research from Goldman Sachs' equity strategy team led by David Kostin shows the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 are expected to see earnings grow by 32% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the other 490 stocks are projected to produce an earnings decline of 4%, leaving the overall earnings growth for the index around 3% for the quarter.

    Nvidia (NVDA) is the clear leader of the group with earnings expected to grow 406% compared to the year prior, followed by Amazon's (AMZN) 175% expected growth. Meta (META), Eli Lily (LLY), Alphabet (GOOGL), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A, BRK-B), Microsoft (MSFT), Broadcom (AVGO), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Apple (AAPL) round out the rest of the top 10.

    This leaves the overall earnings projections for the benchmark index largely levered to the index's largest corporations once again. Kostin notes that if those companies continue to perform, the likelihood of an "acute catch down," where stocks fall to reprice slower-than-expected earnings growth, is "relatively slim."

  • Alexandra Canal

    YouTube TV challenged cable by doing one simple thing — imitating it

    More viewers are cutting the cord in favor of less expensive streaming packages. But Alphabet-owned YouTube (GOOG, GOOGL) has seen success by mimicking the one thing consumers seem to be ditching.

    YouTube TV, the internet pay-TV service that allows viewers to watch live channels and access local broadcast networks like ABC, CBS, FOX, and NBC, first launched in 2017. Since then, its breadth of content as well as its price of just over $70 per month has made it attractive to consumers looking for a cheaper replacement for their cable packages.

    "We hear from our users that they want to be able to watch all their favorite content in one place, and they want to be able to manage all of their subscriptions in one place," Christian Oestlien, vice president of product management at YouTube, told Yahoo Finance. "There's a bit of this subscription fatigue."

    According to Nielsen's latest TV viewing report, YouTube, which also includes the main digital platform, notched its 13th consecutive month as the most-watched streaming service on television screens during the month of February.

    In total, YouTube jumped to a platform-best 9.3% of total US TV viewing, up from the prior-year period's 7.9%. It also delivered a sizable beat compared to Netflix's 7.8% market share.

    Broadcast and cable continued to see yearly declines, contributing to a combined 50.9% of overall TV viewing — down from 54% in February 2023.

    It's a significant feat for YouTube, considering the fragmented media landscape.

    On average, US consumers subscribe to four streaming services and spend about $61 per month, according to the latest Digital Media Trends report from Deloitte. Additionally, 68% of consumers surveyed pay for either a TV subscription or live streaming TV plan to access channels not available on streaming.

    YouTube TV has capitalized on that demand.

    The platform is now the largest pay-TV streamer on the market after recently surpassing 8 million subscribers at a price point of $72.99 a month. Disney's Hulu + Live TV (DIS), which costs $76.99 a month, is the next closest competitor with 4.6 million subscribers as of the quarter ending Dec. 30.

    "We have the ability to deliver that complete experience," Oestlien said, referencing the success of not only YouTube TV, but also the popularity of the platform's digital arm with features like YouTube Shorts, a competitor to Instagram Reels and TikTok, along with viral content creators like Mr. Beast. "I think it's resonated with consumers."

    Read more here.

  • Trending tickers on Monday

    Bitcoin (BTC-USD)

    Bitcoin rose to trade back above $71,700 per token on Monday. The rise comes ahead of the cryptocurrency's reward halving expected later this month.

    Bitcoin is up more than 60% year to date.

    Coinbase (COIN)

    Shares of the cryptocurrency exchange are popping thanks to the rise in bitcoin. Analysts at Barclays also raised their price target on Coinbase to $179 from $146, though still maintaining an Underweight rating on the stock.

    Coinbase is up more than 60% year to date.

    Boeing (BA)

    The industrial giant is under the microscope again, this time because of an engine cover that blew off a Boeing 737-800. The Federal Aviation Administration is investigating the Sunday incident, which occurred during a Southwest Airlines (LUV) flight from Denver to Houston.

    Boeing has faced a string of challenges stemming from an accident involving a door “plug” on a 737 Max 9 flight on Jan. 5.

  • Ines Ferré

    Trump Media stock slips 10%

    Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), the parent company of Donald Trump's social media platform Truth Social, tanked roughly 10% Monday despite a recent media appearance by CEO Devin Nunes defending the company's profitability.

    At current trading levels of about $36.55 a share, Trump Media boasts a market cap of roughly $4.9 billion, giving the former president a stake worth around $2.8 billion. After the company's public blockbuster debut on March 27, Trump's stake was worth just over $4.5 billion.

    One week ago the stock tanked after an updated regulatory filing showed the company took on heavy losses and faced "greater risks" associated with the former president's ties to the platform.

    Monday's loss came on the heels of a 12% drop last Friday.

    Trump Media went public on the Nasdaq after merging with special purpose acquisition company Digital World Acquisition Corp. in a deal approved by shareholders late last month.

    The former president founded Truth Social after he was kicked off major social media apps like Facebook and Twitter, the platform now known as X, following the Jan. 6 Capitol riots in 2021. Trump has since been reinstated on those platforms.

    Last week's filing also revealed stakeholders are still subject to a six-month lockup period before selling or transferring shares.

    The opportunity to cash in by selling some of his stake in the company could help Trump as he faces a $454 million fraud penalty and grapples with a campaign fundraising shortfall ahead of his 2024 election rematch against Biden. Trump recently posted a $175 million bond in the fraud case, which puts the final payment on hold while he appeals the verdict.

    The only exception to the lockup period would be if the company's board votes to make a special dispensation. Although possible, experts told Yahoo Finance last month the attempt would likely result in multiple lawsuits on behalf of public shareholders.

  • Ines Ferré

    Oil futures pull back amid signs of easing Middle East tensions

    Oil futures pulled back roughly 1% on Monday amid some signs of easing tensions in the Middle East.

    West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures were trading above $85 while Brent (BZ=F) traded around the $90 level after Israel agreed to remove some ground troops from the southern Gaza area.

    "Still, the growing demand picture remains a tailwind for crude," Dennis Kissler, senior vice president at BOK Financial, said in a note on Monday.

    The analyst noted oil has risen by roughly $7.00 in the last two weeks.

    "Caution is warranted as the 'overbought' condition is also carrying heavy fund long positions that may have pushed up prices a bit too much too fast," wrote Kissler.

    WTI has risen roughly 16% year to date. Brent climbed 15% during the same period.

  • Ines Ferré

    Amazon stock hovers around all-time closing high

    Amazon's (AMZN) shares rose on Monday, briefly surpassing their 2021 all-time closing high of $186.57.

    The stock rose after Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak lifted his price target on Amazon to $215 from $200. Shares rose over the past year as the company has been cost-cutting in many areas of its business — from cloud services giant Amazon Web Services to the e-commerce titan's retail footprint.

    The stock is up roughly 22% year to-date.

  • Ines Ferré

    Stocks inch higher, inflation data on deck this week

    Stocks inched higher at the open on Monday as investors await fresh inflation data later this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose slightly. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.3%.

    A fresh Consumer Price Index report due out on Wednesday may give investors clues about the Federal Reserve's resolve for interest rate cuts this year. A strong monthly jobs report helped lift stocks on Friday but equities were still down for the week amid worries that Fed officials may delay rate reductions.

    This week JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), and Citi (C) are all set to report earnings, along with Delta Air Lines (DAL).

  • Brian Sozzi

    Disney's potential lift from password sharing crackdown

    Disney (DIS) has a lot of password sharers to crack down on.

    The media giant is expected to begin tightening the grips on password sharing for Disney+ and Hulu this June, teased CEO Bob Iger in a Friday TV interview.

    A new chart from Evercore ISI analyst Vijay Jayant (below) sheds light on how impactful a password-sharing crackdown could be to the streaming division's profitability.

    Disney will follow Netflix and crack down on password sharing.
    Disney will follow Netflix and crack down on password sharing. (EvercoreISI)
  • Brian Sozzi

    Jamie Dimon on why the number of public companies continues to shrink

    The golden nuggets for investors from Jamie Dimon's latest annual letter today continues on page 35.

    The JPMorgan (JPM) boss pointed out the "diminishing role of public companies in the American financial system," as seen in the number of US public companies sitting at 4,300. In 1996, that number stood at 7,300.

    Conversely, the number of US private companies backed by private equity firms has surged to 11,200 from 1,900 over the last two decades, noted Dimon.

    "This trend is serious and may very well increase with more regulation and litigation coming. Along with a frank assessment of the regulation landscape, we really need to consider: Is this the outcome we want?" Dimon wrote.

    Dimon calls out several factors for this disparity:

    • Intensified reporting requirements (see ESG).

    • Higher litigation expenses.

    • Costly regulations.

    • "Cookie-cutter" board governance.

    • Shareholder activism.

    • Less capital flexibility.

    • Heightened public scrutiny.

    • "Relentless pressure" of quarterly earnings.

    I do wonder, however, if fewer public companies has been the driver of higher stock prices since Dimon took over as CEO in the early 2000s. Less supply of assets, more competition for those assets — no?

  • Brian Sozzi

    Dimon succession watchers may feast on this one

    Count me as very fascinated by what JPMorgan (JPM) is working on in the field of artificial intelligence.

    Dimon said in his annual letter today the company now has 2,000 AI/machine learning experts and data scientists. He added the company has 400 use cases in production in areas such as marketing, fraud, and risk — and they are "increasingly driving retail business value across our businesses and functions."

    I am equally fascinated by Dimon dropping COO Daniel Pinto's name (who has long been seen as a Dimon successor) into his important comments on AI. Dimon views AI as so mission critical to JPM's future success, he has created a new role called the chief data and analytics officer. This role sits on the company's operating committee and reports directly to Dimon and Pinto.

    Said Dimon:

    "Elevating this new role to the operating committee level — reporting directly to Daniel Pinto and me — reflects how critical this function will be going forward and how seriously we expect AI to influence our business. This will embed data and analytics into our decision making at every level of the company. The primary focus is not just on the technical aspects of AI but also on how all management can — and should — use it. Each of our lines of business has corresponding data and analytics roles so we can share best practices, develop reusable solutions that solve multiple business problems, and continuously learn and improve as the future of AI unfolds."

  • Brian Sozzi

    JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's master class in making money, in one chart

    Want to know why JPMorgan (JPM) investors hope Jamie Dimon stays CEO for 50 more years?

    Sure, the guy is the face of banking with the best relationships in the game, but at the end of the day — he just knows how to make lots of money for shareholders.

    That's perfectly captured in Dimon's annual letter out this morning. Check out this chart on page 8, showing how JPMorgan's net income has grown by about six times since 2005.

    The money machine that is JP Morgan.
    The money machine that is JPMorgan. (JP Morgan)
  • Brian Sozzi

    Here's Jamie Dimon's latest thinking on where interest rates may go

    JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon just dropped his latest annual letter to shareholders. You can read it here in full. Yahoo Finance's David Hollerith provides analysis of the letter here.

    Dimon doesn't waste any time weighing in on the outlook for interest rates, seemingly echoing what we have heard from some hawkish FOMC members (which has pressured stocks) in recent weeks, emphasis mine:

    "In spite of the unsettling landscape, including last year’s regional bank turmoil, the U.S. economy continues to be resilient, with consumers still spending, and the markets currently expect a soft landing. It is important to note that the economy is being fueled by large amounts of government deficit spending and past stimulus. There is also a growing need for increased spending as we continue transitioning to a greener economy, restructuring global supply chains, boosting military expenditure and battling rising healthcare costs. This may lead to stickier inflation and higher rates than markets expect.

    "Furthermore, there are downside risks to watch. Quantitative tightening is draining more than $900 billion in liquidity from the system annually — and we have never truly experienced the full effect of quantitative tightening on this scale. Plus the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to have the potential to disrupt energy and food markets, migration, and military and economic relationships, in addition to their dreadful human cost. These significant and somewhat unprecedented forces cause us to remain cautious."

    Interestingly, JPMorgan strategists said this morning they see bond yields going lower:

    “With respect to bond yields’ direction, our call last October was to go long duration, that bond yields have likely peaked. After the year to date bounceback, we think that yields will resume moving lower. Our fixed income team forecasts that US and German 10-year yields will be below current on 3-, 6- and 9-month horizons. We fundamentally agree with this, especially given the elevated geopolitical risks at present, but note the risks of inflation staying too hot.”