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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE)

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  • ẞeyhmus
    $XOM conversation
    $XLE 50d and 200d MA nearly crossed. Both are pointing upwards. I wasn't expecting this momentum to start before November, but I would take it if it sustains.
  • ẞeyhmus
    $XOM conversation
    $XLE just increased its quarterly distribution by 12%!
  • S
    Steve Cohen
    $OIH conversation
    Chart looks really good here. I see $240's coming ahead. $OIH $XLE .... HODL
  • E
    Erik
    I pounded $FANG 85 calls yesterday. Big boys been loading up $XLE all the way down. Bottom is in. Cheers to all there isn’t a better company than $FANG out there
  • d
    drew
    $TSLA conversation
    Okay, I know the popular line is oil is dead...but is it really realistic to say a product with 95 million barrels per day in global demand (and quickly rising back to 100 mm BPD) is dead?

    Secondly, the oil companies have developed a huge business and engineering infrastructure that will help them in the transition to green energy over the couple of decades.

    The investment thesis is as follows:

    Intro-
    Oil production is lower than global demand as evidenced by the lower trend of US & Chinese oil stocks. Going forward oil supply will be constrained by government policies to encourage investment in green energy, however, due to global reliance on fossil fuels, oil demand is not projected to fall until 2055 - it will continue to grow at around 2% per year.

    Thesis-
    The combination of decreased production and rising demand create the catalyst for the final long term secular bull market in the oil and gas industry with prices between $100-$150 starting in 2023.

    Details-
    Diversify your recent gains into the oil & Nat gas sector while the market is undervalued. The Green energy transition is limiting oil supply through government policy. Demand is rising as Covid cases are dropping and vaccines are rolled out. See the US IEA inventory report and the China inventory report.

    Secondly refer to the recent Goldman Sachs report about the start of the secular bull market in oil. Expect $100-$150 oil beginning in 2023 through 2040.

    The cash flow generated by these prices will drive further innovation in green energy from oil companies and further result in the strategic buyout of wind and solar companies by the existing oil industry.

    An example of this trend is $OXY. They have developed the worlds first carbon neutral crude and the world’s most advanced carbon capture and sequestration technology. Warren Buffett owns OXY preferred.

    Today you can buy excellent companies or ETFs with high distributors at 1/2 price.

    $GEL for $6.00; $ET for $6.00; $OXY for $21 or $XLE for $41.

    Take some profits and invest in oil companies. It’s the only undervalued market sector remaining. The bull oil market is here for the next 12-15 years.
  • K
    Kenndy
    $GUSH conversation
    Understand this is GUSH,,,, but good news for the energy sector is good for GUSH.

    STRATEGY: Energy outperformance still has legs
    The Energy sector remains our favorite sector, and we believe Energy stocks trade at an unjustified discount to oil, both spot and futures. And oil fundamentals are unusually favorable Tuesday, given the tightening of supply and demand dynamics (we discussed multiple times over past 6 months). One of our clients, ES in SF, also flagged that Exxon ($XOM) looked ready for an upside breakout.

    Indeed, ES is correct (thanks Eric) and $XOM does look ready for an upside breakout. But the significance of this is important to the overall favorable stance on Energy stocks. So I wanted to spend Tuesday talking about this.

    - WTI Oil has cleared the $67.98 resistance decisively and now above $70, with $80 now feasible
    - Since YE2019, WTI is +9% while Energy stocks $XLE, $OIH are down -7% and -10%, respectively
    - $XOM is the largest Energy stock, 25% of sector market cap, thus it is key
    - $XOM is the best performing large-cap stock (among top 30 stocks) in S&P 500 YTD, +50%
  • J
    JAC
    $GTE conversation
    Not sure why GTE is not moving up with other oil companies during the rise in Brent Oil Price. Other companies like $SM and $XLE (which is a mutual fund of 10 oil companies) have risen significantly over the last few months but this company is falling (except for today thank goodness). I understand that $GMT is unloading, but not sure why they are unloading (other than they lost a lot in TSLA). This is my only oil stock that is floundering. Keep hearing May will be the turn around. I hope that is the case. GLTA!
  • J
    Jason
    $TSLA conversation
    Fact: Tesla has never made a profit from selling cars. Without government subsidies Tesla would be bankrupt.

    Fact: The NHTSA has just compelled Tesla to recall over 100,000 vehicles. It’s customary for credible automakers to self-report these issues, not to be forced by the government.

    Fact: Tesla is a very expensive vehicle with very little time on the market. Its long term reliability has not been tested or proven.

    Fact: The United States has an unemployment problem yet Tesla fans (they’re not investors-it’s too emotional to be an investment) think $40,000 base model cars built by a start up company are just what the masses want.

    Fact: Elon Musk made his money from creating PayPal. He’s not a manufacturing guy or an automotive engineer.

    Fact: $F has an army of highly experienced best in the world engineers developing a new electric F-150. Ford has vast experience in automotive engineering design and manufacturing from over a century of lessons learned - that Tesla still has to learn.

    Fact: The Ford F-150 is the best selling vehicle in the United States for over 25 years running.

    Fact: Other Real automakers are developing electric vehicles using their vast experience in vehicle design and manufacturing. With pre-established proven technology and supply chains.

    Fact: Tesla is currently valued at 1700X’s earnings - earnings which without Government Subsidies would not exist.

    These are indisputable facts.

    Tesla is the definition of a bubble. It’s not investable. It’s overvalued and will crash.

    The best corollary is NetScape versus Internet Explorer in the 1990’s...NetScape launched the first real internet browser - ie. Tesla as the first EV - but then Microsoft used its existing knowledge and infrastructure to crush NetScape.

    Tesla=NetScape

    What should you do?

    Invest in real companies with essential products, growing demand and real assets that are trading below traditional valuations.

    Buy $XLE $OXY $ET $GEL $XOM $CVX
  • R
    Ryan
    $SLB conversation
    Energy sector portfolio weighting is approximately 3%. It can go as high as 16%. We will feel the floor move below our feet when the largest institutions put their money into the best performing sector thus far. There will be a flood of dry powder entering the space over the next year due to the economy expecting 3-5 years worth of travel over the next 9 months. $OIH $XLE
  • d
    danny
    $XLE conversation
    $XOM

    $XLE

    $CVX

    $OXY

    $TSLA
    For those who say oil is dead - executives from American oil and gas companies met with the White House today to discuss the new climate & infrastructure package.

    It’s notable that Elon Musk, Cathie Wood or the new trendy green CEOs were NOT invited.

    As I’ve said countless times, existing energy companies will be the leaders with their existing engineering capacity, financial resources and global structure. They will likely receive grants from the infrastructure bull to develop carbon scrubbing tech & alternative fuels.

    In other words- to invest in
    $XLE
    and it’s component companies is to invest in tomorrow’s green companies.
  • j
    jim
    $TSLA conversation
    JP Morgan Quant Expert predicts Secular Bull Market in oil companies driven by algorithm initiated short squeeze in March 2021

    JPM quant trading and valuation experts Marko Kolanovic predicts the next 12 years will be the most profitable era for oil investors in the past 100 years due to inflation, the weakening US Dollar (caused by stimulus), a booming stimulus-driven recovery, and under-investment in oil production caused by environmental concerns.

    The fundamentals will be compounded by automatic trading by algorithm driven super-fast traders called Quants.

    The market will begin automatically rebalancing out of short positions in mid-March due to the recent rise in energy company stocks, oil prices and excess liquidity.

    The best picks to cash in on this cycle are $OXY, $XOM, $CVX, $ET, $ERX & $XLE.

    The following is an excerpt from his article.

    Quants and Momentum Investing

    In a market where algos and trend-followers have emerged as one of the dominant price-setting forces, it is hardly a surprise that the JPM quant focuses on their influence as the driver behind a commodity supercycle. Indeed, he writes that after "CTAs played significant role in the 2014 oil price downturn" more recently, "CTA funds have been adding Energy exposure. The reason is that 12-month momentum turned positive on Oil, and going forward signals will remain solidly positive."

    And since vol-control funds are some of the dumbest money around and their actions can be anticipated well in advance, JPM notes that "a further decline in volatility will likely result in larger and more stable cross-asset quant allocations. A larger momentum impact may affect Energy equities, which is the only sector that still has a strongly negative momentum signal and is hence heavily shorted in the context of factor investing."

    That, JPMorgan believes, will "change in mid-March, when the momentum signal for energy equities turns positive" which may be a hint to the redditors out there: if you want to squeeze the systematic shorts, do it where it hurts and buy some energy stocks to crush the CTAs. You have about a month to do so because JPM's model momentum factor "will need to rebalance in March by closing ~20% of its allocation to Energy equity shorts, and adding ~2% to energy longs, for a ~22% net buying in Energy."

    What is the quantitative significance of these flows? Kolanovic calculates that if one roughly assumes that there is about ~$1Tr in equity long-short quant funds and that half of these funds are not sector neutralized, "the flows could be quite significant, roughly $20-$30bn." As shown in the chart below, the ratio of energy shares shorted vs all other S&P 500 shares shorted, closely followed the commodity supercycle.

    Remarkably, most recently the number of shares shorted for energy was 4 times the S&P 500 average (note that given the decline of the sector’s weight, energy share prices declined, and the effective $ amount shorted was only 2 times larger). In other words, one doesn't even need to squeeze the shorts: come March - absent some major new crisis - as a result of broader market technicals the prevailing shorts will close them out on their own and go long.

    Another "flow factor" behind the "supercycle" is rotation by discretionary funds and retail: In the period from 2010 to 2015, the Energy sector had a 10.6% allocation in conventional equity portfolios. Since then, this has declined to a 3.1% weight currently (Figure 4). The largest decline was in active allocations, which declined from 7% to 1.5% (while passive allocations decreased from 3.6% to 1.8%), which is understandable - investors dumped "dead stocks" to chase growth and momentum, but the tide is now turning, and "any retracement of this decline, on a US equity fund asset base of ~$14T would result in significant inflows and re-pricing."

    According to Kolanovic, as economies reopen, inflation moves higher, and yield curves steepen, active funds are expected to first close cyclical shorts, and then rotate from long secular growth towards value and cyclicals. His next point is critical: given that equity assets significantly increased over the last 10 years, and the energy sector significantly decreased, even a small rotation could produce an outsized move.
    JPM has a hot tip for investors: the biggest systematic shorts are in the energy sector.
    JPM has a hot tip for investors: the biggest systematic shorts are in the energy sector.
    www.zerohedge.com
  • N
    Nate
    $SPY conversation
    How about that turnaround in $XLE today. I got in on that action. Made 3% in 30 minutes on that trade by buying ERX. Perhaps I trade that with options in the future. So much fun to make money!
  • J
    Jason
    $TSLA conversation
    According to Goldman Sachs, oil is set to begin a long 12-15 year secular bull market. It’s time to invest in old school energy like $XLE $OXY $ET & $GEL. These companies will generate cash to buy out the green start ups and complete the green revolution.
  • d
    danny
    $TSLA conversation
    Recoup your losses in ERX. Oil is traded only in US Dollars globally. When the dollar is weak, oil prices rise. The amount of stimulus injected into the economy due to Covid dwarfs any past stimulus measures taken in the history of the planet.

    This devalues the dollar (its inflationary). Oil must rise simply due to the dollar inflation created by the stimulus.

    Couple the dollar inflation with rising demand due to vaccines (and travel demand returning) and the constrained supply, you have the next bull market in oil for the next decade.

    Play this with ERX. It’s double levered to XLE. Meaning if XLE moves 5%, ERX moves 10%. For the same corresponding price target in $XLE, $ERX is cheaper when playing calls.
  • A
    Aaron
    $DNR conversation
    Energy stocks $XLE look setup for upside

    OIL is flat since its June 8th peak, Energy Stocks have lagged down 25%. There's a setup now for this underperformance to end with XLE putting in a bull wedge at key support. 44 is breakout target - bullish for Oil and $SPX .
  • J
    Jason
    $GME conversation
    Here’s what you need to do with your profits from $AMC and $GME.

    The market has taken on the false narrative that a virus caused the entire world’s infrastructure to change overnight to all solar and wind. This is simply a false narrative.

    There’s no doubt that the industrialized world will transition to green energy, but this will take a coordinated effort for the next 15 years.

    What do we do in the meantime? We change government policies to discourage oil and gas production. Part of this is to limit supply to drive up the price of gasoline and diesel fuel. This makes green alternative energy more tenable because it is cheap relative to oil and gas.

    In the US, the easy policies of the old administration actually hurt the oil and gas industry. They drilled and drilled until the US became the world leading exporter of oil and gas. Then COVID happened and world wide demand dropped by 8% - that’s right only 8%.

    So far in 2021, demand has recovered by 5%. As of right now, we are only using 3% less oil and gas than we were. Does that sound like a dead industry? Absolutely not.

    The meteoric stock price rise of solar companies and $TSLA is a bubble. The profits are not there.

    Now with oil at $53 and Nat Gas at $2.85 - oil companies are profitable.

    With oil and gas supply being limited by policy - we can expect oil to be $75 by 2022 and over $100 by 2023 - 2035.

    This is the last golden age of black gold. The last bull market of oil before the oil majors buyout the green energy companies with the treasure troves of cash they are going to generate over the next 15 years.

    So...take your profits and buy $OXY $XLE $XOM $CVX $ET & $GEL. You’ll triple your money in two years.
  • d
    drew
    $TSLA conversation
    Tesla is the top EV company in the world. It’s investors have been rewarded. Diversify your gains into the oil & Nat gas companies while the market is undervalued. The Green energy transition is limiting oil supply through government policy. Demand is rising as Covid cases are dropping and vaccines are rolled out. See the US IEA inventory report and the China inventory report.

    Read the Goldman Sachs report about the start of the secular bull market in oil. Expect $100-$150 oil beginning in 2023 through 2035.

    The cash flow generated by these prices will drive further innovation in green energy from oil companies and the strategic buyout of wind and solar.

    $Oxy has developed the worlds first carbon neutral crude.

    Today you can buy excellent companies or ETFs with high distributors at 1/2 price.

    $GEL for $6.00; $ET for $6.00; $OXY for $21 or $XLE for $41. Warren Buffett owns OXY stock.

    Take some profits and invest in oil companies. It’s the only undervalued market sector remaining. The bull oil market is here for the next 12-15 years.
  • N
    Nick
    $XOP conversation
    $XOP $XLE $USO $USL positive news coming out from the Saudis and Russians in holding production cuts - still reluctance from other parties as meeting date pushed back to June 17-18 - so tough to call considering all the parties involved
    more energy content from this account
    https://twitter.com/Clifton_Capital/status/1268286111945760775
  • H
    Hookem
    $CHK conversation
    Interesting news for the energy sector going forward.

    JP Morgan Quant Expert predicts Secular Bull Market in oil companies driven by algorithm initiated short squeeze in March 2021

    JPM quant trading and valuation experts Marko Kolanovic predicts the next 12 years will be the most profitable era for oil investors in the past 100 years due to inflation, the weakening US Dollar (caused by stimulus), a booming stimulus-driven recovery, and under-investment in oil production caused by environmental concerns.

    The fundamentals will be compounded by automatic trading by algorithm driven super-fast traders called Quants.

    The market will begin automatically rebalancing out of short positions in mid-March due to the recent rise in energy company stocks, oil prices and excess liquidity.

    The best picks to cash in on this cycle are $OXY, $XOM, $CVX, $ET, $ERX & $XLE.

    The following is an excerpt from his article.

    Quants and Momentum Investing

    In a market where algos and trend-followers have emerged as one of the dominant price-setting forces, it is hardly a surprise that the JPM quant focuses on their influence as the driver behind a commodity supercycle. Indeed, he writes that after "CTAs played significant role in the 2014 oil price downturn" more recently, "CTA funds have been adding Energy exposure. The reason is that 12-month momentum turned positive on Oil, and going forward signals will remain solidly positive."

    And since vol-control funds are some of the dumbest money around and their actions can be anticipated well in advance, JPM notes that "a further decline in volatility will likely result in larger and more stable cross-asset quant allocations. A larger momentum impact may affect Energy equities, which is the only sector that still has a strongly negative momentum signal and is hence heavily shorted in the context of factor investing."

    That, JPMorgan believes, will "change in mid-March, when the momentum signal for energy equities turns positive" which may be a hint to the redditors out there: if you want to squeeze the systematic shorts, do it where it hurts and buy some energy stocks to crush the CTAs. You have about a month to do so because JPM's model momentum factor "will need to rebalance in March by closing ~20% of its allocation to Energy equity shorts, and adding ~2% to energy longs, for a ~22% net buying in Energy."

    What is the quantitative significance of these flows? Kolanovic calculates that if one roughly assumes that there is about ~$1Tr in equity long-short quant funds and that half of these funds are not sector neutralized, "the flows could be quite significant, roughly $20-$30bn." As shown in the chart below, the ratio of energy shares shorted vs all other S&P 500 shares shorted, closely followed the commodity supercycle.

    Remarkably, most recently the number of shares shorted for energy was 4 times the S&P 500 average (note that given the decline of the sector’s weight, energy share prices declined, and the effective $ amount shorted was only 2 times larger). In other words, one doesn't even need to squeeze the shorts: come March - absent some major new crisis - as a result of broader market technicals the prevailing shorts will close them out on their own and go long.

    Another "flow factor" behind the "supercycle" is rotation by discretionary funds and retail: In the period from 2010 to 2015, the Energy sector had a 10.6% allocation in conventional equity portfolios. Since then, this has declined to a 3.1% weight currently (Figure 4). The largest decline was in active allocations, which declined from 7% to 1.5% (while passive allocations decreased from 3.6% to 1.8%), which is understandable - investors dumped "dead stocks" to chase growth and momentum, but the tide is now turning, and "any retracement of this decline, on a US equity fund asset base of ~$14T would result in significant inflows and re-pricing."

    According to Kolanovic, as economies reopen, inflation moves higher, and yield curves steepen, active funds are expected to first close cyclical shorts, and then rotate from long secular growth towards value and cyclicals. His next point is critical: given that equity assets significantly increased over the last 10 years, and the energy sector significantly decreased, even a small rotation could produce an outsized move.
  • d
    danny
    $TSLA conversation
    Tesla has had a great run! If you’ve made profits take some off the table and listen to Goldman Sachs!

    Okay, I know the popular line is oil is dead...but is it really realistic to say a product with 95 million barrels per day in global demand (and quickly rising back to 100 mm Barrels per day) is dead?

    Secondly, the oil companies have developed a huge business and engineering infrastructure that will help them in the transition to green energy over the couple of decades.

    The investment thesis is as follows:

    Intro-
    Oil production is lower than global demand as evidenced by the lower trend of US & Chinese oil stocks. Going forward oil supply will be constrained by government policies to encourage investment in green energy, however, due to global reliance on fossil fuels, oil demand is not projected to fall until 2055 - it will continue to grow at around 2% per year.

    Thesis-
    The combination of decreased production and rising demand create the catalyst for the final long term secular bull market in the oil and gas industry with prices between $100-$150 starting in 2023.

    Details-
    Diversify your recent gains into the oil & Nat gas sector while the market is undervalued. The Green energy transition is limiting oil supply through government policy. Demand is rising as Covid cases are dropping and vaccines are rolled out. See the US inventory report released every Wednesday and the China inventory report.

    Secondly refer to the recent Goldman Sachs report about the start of the secular bull market in oil. Expect $100-$150 oil beginning in 2023 through 2040.

    The cash flow generated by these prices will drive further innovation in green energy from oil companies and further result in the strategic buyout of wind and solar companies by the existing oil industry.

    An example of this trend is $OXY. They have developed the worlds first carbon neutral crude and the world’s most advanced carbon capture and sequestration technology. Warren Buffett owns OXY preferred.

    Today you can buy excellent companies or ETFs with high distributors at 1/2 price.

    $GEL for $6.00; $ET for $6.00; $OXY for $21 or $XLE for $41.

    Take some profits and invest in oil companies. It’s the only undervalued market sector remaining. The bull oil market is here for the next 12-15 years.