Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)

Anyone care to comment on the justification of the chip selloff being because investors fear there will be a chip glut as consumers buy more chips than they need? I could see this being a concern when manufacturers start saying they are back to full production, but as long as they are not saying that then they obviously can't get the chips they need much less a surplus. Maybe when they start saying production is back to full compacity does it start making sense to fear a glut. I get the market is forward looking, but that is really forward looking to be selling off now. $NVDA $AMD $MU $QCOMM

$STX up, $MU flat

WTH is problem with WDC?

Why is that we are always loser?

TSM just announced a massive earnings beat with strong guidance, great for the semiconductor sector!
- Revenue: $17.57B vs. $16.97B Expected
- EPS: $1.40 vs. $1.30 Expected
- Revenue growth of 36% YoY and 12% QoQ
- HPC and Automotive driving QoQ growth

GUIDANCE BY TSMC CEO
- TSMC sees another strong year for semiconductors. "We continue to observe the structural increase in semiconductor demand."
- Expect 2022 revenue to meet or exceed guidance of high-20s % growth in US dollar terms.
- Guides on its call for Q2 revenue of $17.6B-$18.2B. Compares with Q1 revenue of $17.57B. HPC/auto growth said to offset smartphone seasonality.
- Full-year capex guidance of $40B to $44B is reiterated

$TSM $AMD $NVDA $MU $QCOM

It would be easier to believe the doom & gloom predictions if we weren't in the midst of a huge transition to AI/ML and this didn't require huge amounts of memory (hint, see $NVDA 3080ti, 3080, 3090 cards). Or the datacenter memory requirements weren't growing exponentially (hint, see $AMD EPYC for datacenter, 64c/128t models). Or storage requirement, hot storage these days being memory based (SSD), and not HDD anymore.
In a world with ever increasing need for memory, storage, one would think that $MU would be well positioned. On the technicals side, it's a bit weak, but on the fundamentals, specially long term, not really.
Which makes me wonder why there's a sudden frenzy of doom & gloom from random unheard analysts which gets promptly recycled in the mainstream financial media.
It's almost as if they were trying to warn the retail investors of a impending apocalypse, save them, help them alleviate the monetary burden of their ill advised investments.

Higher rates will put a downward pressure with stocks with high valuation, but $MU earnings will likely show parabolic trend throughout the remainder of the year - we can draw a pretty good prediction from $MU's earnings cycle from 2016-2018.

The market will be largely be earnings-driven as the interest rates level out to a new level. You want to be holding names that can show real $ results on its earnings report. Just look at increasing shipment volumes on 5G smartphone rollouts, big datacenter upgrades, and residual PC demand from the pandemic year. The current supply cannot meet these rising demands, and it will likely result in rocketing ASPs for anything that $MU sells.

Beyond 2011, we will see electric & self-driving autos that consumes loads of low-power, reliable memory parts that $MU already has a high market share. The semiconductor is a cyclical business, of course, but it's likely that $MU's future downward cycles will become shorter as it extends to these new memory markets - (autos, IoT, "edge-computing" devices).

I am very LONG on $MU - we haven't seen anything yet on this rocket that is primed to shoot up.

$NLST So we're tightening the 3 amigos around the nose...

1 - Samsung has no license and needs to pay past and future licenses. No matter what they have to pay now after verdict. I expect the big part will be past infringement and future royalties.
2 - $GOOG is on the hook on Januari 12 for claim 16 for 13 years of patent 912 infringement and counting and they can't hide behind Samsung for sure! 😁
3 - $MU is watching events unfold and preparing for voluntary licensing.

SK Hynix with Netlist is going to takeover some Samsung business if Samsung doesn't come up quickly with a settlement agreement. Since its public information that Samsung doesn't hold any Netlist IP patent rights I don't think that customers like Lenovo, Uber, Riot Games want to be caught buying infringing products and will need to turn to SK Hynix and/or Netlist. The tables have turned in Netlist favor 😁

Netlist should write a letter to all Samsung customers and warn them against infringing Samung products!

The memory cycle is still growing and getting larger. Autonomous vehicles are expected to grow by 50x in sales over the next 10 years. Apple is pushing forward 5G. Datacenter is crunching big data for AI applications. The current memory super-cycle has the potential to last for YEARS. EUV in 2024 will allow for further margin expansion.

Looking forward MU is still growing. A forward P/E of <10 is downright laughable. A P/E = 10 is 30% jump in share price to ~$95s.

The difference between now and 2018s downtrend is that memory is in very tight supply. Demand is at all time highs with no signs of inventory build up. And the memory industry is becoming less and less of a commodity. I do not see $MU going under $70-75 level for the foreseeable future. There should be strong support there due to the facts stated above; it is free money!

$100B market cap coming soon!

Looks like yet another 'buy the dip' opportunity:

In the same report Morgan Stanley ups their $MU target from $39 to $55 adding, "We would buy Micron on any NAND-related concerns."
"Micron – remain OW, raising PT: We would buy Micron on any NAND-related concerns. DRAM is the primary earnings driver, and while NAND is one-third of the business, the company is in the middle of transforming itself from a very weak planar NAND vendor to a more competitive 3D NAND vendor. Micron will have more NAND bit growth than any of the peers in 2018 (meaning costs are coming down more), and should be able to drive better pricing as its 3D product matures and is qualified with new customers. We expect upside this quarter and next based on DRAM."

And:

https://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKBN1DR0B0-OCABS