S&P 500 (^GSPC)

I hope everyone brought their parachute.

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I hope that everyone has read Chapter 1 & 2 from the book "The Intelligent Investor" on Investment vs. Speculation & Inflation. You will understand where the market currently is and what will happen in the near future with increasing inflation and eventual increase in interest rates.

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Hey guys, just wondering how much you guys are up YTD or since the market crashed in late Feb. Just curious. If you're not comfortable listing a % gain/loss, you can simply note you're at a loss or a gain since (x date). We're all here to make money, so I hope you all are.

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If you're new to the stock market, welcome! The sooner you learn the market cycle, the sooner you'll accept the emotional roller coaster you'll be going on. Contrary to recent popular euphoric myth, pandemics, recessions and depressions of -60% to -90% or more drops in the stock market are not strange anomalies restricted to the past only.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/PzVLsu2afMbucPMd6

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I'm not sure what all the euphoria is all about with dead cat bounces, aka 50% retracements, technical bounces etc. By the very nature of how the stock market works, with sell offs, followed by bounces, and then more selling. This has happened long before computers and algos. Trend is more important than daily fluctuations. The fact is that shops and companies will continue to be decimated by this virus because people will be afraid to catch it and infect their family members. People won't go to the store or shop unless they have to. They won't eat out, won't buy/sell, won't go anywhere with a lot of people. This will go on for months. It's not going to magically turn around next week. China's economy WILL be affected. Layoffs WILL occur, and an extreme dip in GDP or even a recession can follow, along with the global economies and the U.S. Low manufacturing in China will lead to inflation in the U.S. where consumption is still strong. Simply supply and demand. That'll lead to Feds raising rates to combat inflation.

Per the WSJ:

"Ironically, given the name Spanish Flu, Spain performed better than average. Per capita GDP rose during the epidemic, though real consumer spending per person fell in 1920-21.

The years between 1918 and 1920 or 1921 also featured sharp declines in stock prices in many countries. We have data on real rates of return on stocks in these years for 18 of the 36 countries in our sample. Among these 18, 11 had stock-market crashes, defined as a cumulated real rate of return of minus 25% or worse. The weakest markets for this period include Italy at minus 69%; Denmark, minus 57%; Switzerland, minus 54%; Japan, minus 52%; and France and Spain, both minus 46%. Germany saw a rate of return of minus 78%, but this reflected in part the reparations payments imposed by the Versailles Treaty at the end of World War I. The U.S. stock market performed better than average, but the real return in 1920 was still a dismal minus 22%."

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OK OK, the S&P broke support today. It started off good, but I think Dr. Fauci's testimony about reopening too early causing more death and destruction spooked the market. Sold all longs a few mins ago and went to $TVIX and some $SQQQ. After all, the market only went up on hope/hype of a reopening.

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Shiller P/E is 33+ on the S&P500. This market is WAY overvalued.

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If you were smart, you would have moved 401K out for any trapped bag holders and sold your long positions. Next week the real blood bath begins. Manipulator always try to keep the market in a controlled free fall by pushing it up on Fridays so the weekly numbers look good and so they can short for the following week.

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The Dow Jones for the past 100+ years. The first yellow highlight was during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. You then had the Roaring 20s where stocks went a straight unsustainable up, setting up for a massive stock market crash, thus triggering the Great Depression.

You can see we are due for a big correction. We'll either approach the lows after the dot com bubble crash and recover there, or it'll head straight down to meet the trendline from half a century ago.

Debt bubbles & zero interest rates are the only things propping up the market. The EU has a bunch of zombie companies that only survives from more debt.

A drop to the 1987 flash crash level would be about a 93% drop. Seems unlikely, but the Great Recession dropped stocks about 56%, and in the Great Depression it dropped more than 90%, so that would be right on par with a Great Depression level drop. It all depends on COVID-19.

That's why it's important that you research this SARS-COV-2 virus and really understand the SCIENCE (not fake Media pumping, hyping, or lying, but real science) of what sets it apart from MERS and SARS and the flu/common cold. Hint: It's infectious as hell and kills a shiz ton of people. Unlike the 1918 Flu Pandemic where it could kill you within a few hours or days (from you drowning in fluids), it takes about 30 days to kill you, ensuring you continue to infect other people throughout that time.

The ignorance of "it's just the flu", "the flu is worse", "it's just the common cold" will ensure that misinformation GUARANTEES people continue to spread this virus and cause more deaths, doing the very thing you hope it doesn't do. Only facts and science matters.

Pray it does not mutate or come in waves like past pandemics where the secondary and tertiary waves are A LOT more deadly than the first one.

7% of 4 billion people = 280 MILLION people dead. This number is more than all the wars of the 20th AND 21st centuries AND all the seasonal flu and common cold deaths, COMBINED.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/8QbAZeW66rvXW8wQ9

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Shutdown 2.0 is here, and the second wave of coronavirus isn't even here yet.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/california-to-close-indoor-restaurants-movie-theaters-and-bars-statewide-as-coronavirus-cases-rise.html

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"Powell likely going to have to raise interest rates."

Yes. As inflation increases, the way to curb it is through raising interest rates. The fed originally stated that rates weren't going to rise until at least 2022. However, it seems that we may see a rate increase sooner than expected.

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Both Greenspan and Bernanke made sure investors were primed for only good news, docile sheep led to the slaughter, just like Powell is trying to keep everyone calm now. Boy were they dead wrong. "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday [May 17, 2007] that he didn't believe the growing number of mortgage defaults would seriously harm the economy, and also noted that banks share significant risks when financing private equity deals."

https://www.cnbc.com/id/18718555

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Even with most countries (China, Iran, Italy, U.S.) except for South Korea and Singapore faking their numbers, the log chart shows exponential growth of cases (i.e. 45% daily increases of the total). Imagine if countries, including the U.S. were actually truthful and giving real figures. We'd not just have exponential (highlighted yellow, straight line), but we'd have an acceleration of the exponential (what we're seeing with the red arrow direction). I calculated we should see 13-14 more after the 9 from yesterday. Today, 12 got added to 9, making it 21. So far my math is pretty much spot on. The day is still young. More reports should be coming in.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/rWDiXEc2d1X7AYFN9

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Surprise! I bet it's higher than this because again, you can't use the CURRENT death count and divide by the TOTAL infected. You have to divide it by a few days in the past to even get a generally somewhat accurate estimate. Once all the people on the cruise ship survives/deceases, we can calculate from that, but that'll be dependent on the type of passengers too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

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Judge should overturn the tax free unemployment income from 2020 next. It's theft to get 10k and not pay any tax while someone who works for 10k must pay tax.

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Here's the real problem. And it's not even the fall 2nd wave yet. We're still in the first wave.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/afF8oi81Y17VYWRKA

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COVID deaths up. We will be hitting records in the next few days. Deficit spending up. Companies have decreased earnings, yet markets are at ATH. This is a classic bubble folks. S&P500 is worth half of what it is today, based on the Shiller P/E.

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