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  • Biden Will Need to Wait Longer for a U.S. Jobs Rebound: Eco Week

    Biden Will Need to Wait Longer for a U.S. Jobs Rebound: Eco Week

    (Bloomberg) -- The first full month of Joe Biden’s presidency of the U.S. looks likely to have featured limited progress for the labor market as the coronavirus kept a lid on growth.Economists surveyed before data on Friday anticipate an increase in the unemployment rate to 6.4%, with a tally of about 180,000 new jobs. Private payrolls will be watched closely after pandemic-related restrictions eased in many states in recent weeks, likely allowing for increased hiring at service businesses like restaurants.Policy makers including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen continue to see the labor market as a point of weakness for the economy. The central bank chief said last week that the pace of improvement has slowed in recent months and indicated that policy makers are nowhere close to pulling back on support.“Continued progress in many industries has been tempered by significant losses in industries such as leisure and hospitality, where the resurgence in the virus and increased social distancing have weighed further on activity,” Powell told the Senate Banking Committee.Meanwhile, the focus of Biden’s plan for $1.9 trillion in additional pandemic aid will turn to Senate consideration this week, following House passage on Saturday. Lawmakers hope to send the package to the president before March 14, when additional aid for many unemployed Americans expires.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The $1.9 trillion relief bill passed by the House is large enough to push U.S. GDP above the pre-pandemic trend by midyear. Our analysis of the composition and associated multipliers -- the response of growth to fiscal aid -- could mean GDP growth in the vicinity of 7.4% for the full year on a 4Q-over-4Q basis, the best since 1983. Still, a recovery in economy-wide spending will not coincide with a full recovery in the labor market.”--Andrew Husby. For the full INSIGHT, click hereElsewhere, the U.K. chancellor will unveil a new budget, and China’s National People’s Congress presents the country’s latest economic goals. Central banks in Australia, Malaysia and Poland are among those scheduled to set rates.Click here for what happened last week and below is our wrap of what is coming up in the global economy.Europe, Middle East, AfricaIn the U.K., Chancellor Rishi Sunak will unveil the country’s much-delayed budget on Wednesday, marking the first formal assessment of the overall damage inflicted on the public finances from the coronavirus. Observers are keenly watching for evidence that he will follow through on his hints of fiscal tightening to pay for the ballooning costs of the crisis, with an increase in corporation tax touted as one possible measure.The euro zone’s inflation rate for February may provide a modicum of comfort for policy makers at the European Central Bank as they ponder the strength of the region’s recovery. Consumer prices probably held at 0.9% on an annual basis.Turkey publishes key data next week including fourth-quarter gross domestic product on Monday, which is expected to show that a campaign of cheap credit and rapid interest-rate cuts under the now-replaced economy team led to one of the world’s biggest expansions in the period -- at the expense of the lira, inflation and foreign-exchange reserves.A report on Wednesday will probably show Turkish inflation quickened to more than 15%, and some easing of virus restrictions is also expected during the week.Data on Friday will probably show the South African central bank continued buying state debt in the secondary market in February after first stepping in last year.For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for EMEAAsiaChina’s all-important National People’s Congress takes place Friday, where the nation’s communist leaders unveil their annual budget, economic growth goals, and targets for everything from urban job creation to consumer price inflation.That follows the release of purchasing managers’ surveys on Sunday, that showed manufacturing activity dropped further in February as the Lunar New Year holidays disrupted production, while travel restrictions to contain virus outbreaks cut spending on services.In Australia, the central bank meets on Tuesday, with no change to its main policy levers expected, while GDP data for the fourth quarter is released the following day.South Korea trade figures out Monday are expected to confirm a continued resurgence in exports that points to the improving health of global trade. Korea will revise its GDP numbers on Thursday and release inflation figures that are seen showing a slight acceleration.Japan’s capital spending figures due Tuesday will be used to revise GDP data that already showed stronger-than-expected business investment. The country’s jobless figures are expected to inch up from 2.9%, still leaving it at a remarkably low level for the pandemic-hit world.For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for AsiaLatin AmericaChile’s central bank on Monday posts its January economic activity report. The economy’s uneven recovery out of the pandemic recession took on a more balanced look in December as services rebounded sharply after lagging behind consumption and manufacturing.On Wednesday, Brazil’s 2020 performance will be laid bare with fourth-quarter and full-year GDP data. The government’s outsized response -- spending roughly 8% of GDP coupled with record-low interest rates -- probably limited the annual contraction to -4.2%, the least among the region’s big economies.The country’s challenges are mounting however: all that stimulus further battered Brazil’s finances and stirred up inflation that’s likely to hasten central-bank tightening.Later Wednesday, Mexico’s central bank posts its quarterly inflation report, with new inflation forecasts that are keenly anticipated just weeks before the next policy meeting.Rounding out the week, Brazil reports industrial production on Friday and Colombia posts monthly inflation data.For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Latin AmericaFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • China's factory activity expands at a slower pace in February, misses expectations: official PMI

    China's factory activity expands at a slower pace in February, misses expectations: official PMI

    The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) fell to 50.6 from 51.3 in January, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Sunday, remaining above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction. Chinese factory activity normally goes dormant during the Lunar New Year break as workers return to their home towns. Generally, China's economic recovery has been gathering pace due to robust exports, pent-up demand and government stimulus.

  • Etsy Spikes 11.5% On Upbeat 1Q Outlook After 4Q Profit Beat

    Etsy Spikes 11.5% On Upbeat 1Q Outlook After 4Q Profit Beat

    Etsy stock gained 11.5% on Friday after the online marketplace for handcrafted goods reported stellar fourth-quarter results and forecasted a 1Q revenue outlook that topped the Street estimates. Etsy's (ETSY) adjusted earnings soared 332% to $1.08 per share from the year-ago period and outperformed the Street’s estimates of $0.59 per share. The company’s 4Q revenues jumped about 129% to $617.4 million and exceeded the consensus estimates of $516 million. The company’s gross merchandise sales of $3.61 billion more than doubled from $1.66 billion in the year-ago quarter. Analysts were expecting gross merchandise sales of $3.08 billion. The company’s CFO Rachel Glaser said, “Product enhancements and disciplined marketing investments worked together to increase buyer lifetime value, enabling us to increase spend in marketing while maintaining high return on investment.” As for 1Q, Etsy expects to generate revenues in the range of $513-$536 million, much higher than analysts’ expectations of $383 million. (See Etsy stock analysis on TipRanks) Following the impressive results, Roth Capital analyst Darren Aftahi raised the stock’s price target to $245 (11% upside potential) from $235 and maintained a Buy rating. In a note to investors, the analyst said, “Although growth decelerates beyond 1Q, we believe it remains positive, while incremental investment (marketing/product) aids future growth plans, along with international traction.” Overall, the Street has a bullish outlook on the stock, with a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 12 Buys, 1 Hold and 1 Sell. The average analyst price target of $232.93 implies upside potential of about 6% to current levels. Furthermore, ETSY scores a “Perfect 10” on TipRanks’ Smart Score rating system, indicating that the stock has strong potential to outperform market expectations. Related News:Rocket Gains 6.8% On Special Dividend Announcement After A Blowout QuarterLHC Group Slips 5.9% After-Hours On Tepid 1Q OutlookArcosa’s 2021 Revenue Outlook Disappoints After 4Q Miss; Stock Plunges 16% More recent articles from Smarter Analyst: J&J’s Single-Dose COVID-19 Vaccine Cleared For Emergency Use In US Plug Power To Invest $290M To Set Up Largest Green Hydrogen Plant In North America Tesla Confirms Fremont Factory Restart After Parts Supply Shortage – Report Humana, Mercy Partner On Virtual Health Service Access Expansion; Street Says Buy